We spent despite being whipsawed by economic news. Raises and slowing inflation helped.

Households and businesses cut consumption by 20%. A mild winter also helped. Conservation efforts and a warm winter helped.

Wages increased 1% in Q4. Inflation is also slowing. All that could impact whether — and by how much — the Fed hikes interest rates.

We take a look inside the world of economic forecasting and ask whether predictions are reliable.

A majority still think the country is headed for a recession. But the majority’s shrinking.

A New York Fed survey shows consumers are cutting back. But inflation means they’re paying more for the same stuff.

Prices were up 6.5% over the past year, well above the Fed’s targets but the smallest increase since October 2021. It’s a sign that inflation is easing.

The labor market is still pretty tight, but the smallest businesses are more vulnerable to an economic downturn.

Economists say millions of unfilled jobs could limit economic growth.

The prominent economist Mohamed El-Erian said the Fed is still “behind the curve” on inflation.