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The CPI shows consistently higher inflation than the PCE because it emphasizes different prices. Their gap has been wider than usual.
The monthly inflation gauge, to be released Wednesday, could influence how much the central bank cuts rates next week.
The economy — and life —has changed a lot since.
Housing costs rose 5.2% in June from a year earlier, pulling up the consumer price index.
Owners’ equivalent rent measures the market cost of living in a home — which is a bit different from how much we actually spend on housing.
Despite the CPI coming in unexpectedly low, the Federal Reserve needs more convincing that inflation is really getting better.
Consumers tend to be very sensitive to food costs. Fresh edibles like fruit, vegetables and meat saw substantial declines.
Loans are a big cost, but they would muddle the data in the CPI. Fed rate hikes would essentially create inflation, despite their intention.
CPI and PCE can both seem to be out of step with consumers’ experience.
The Energy Information Association expects electricity demand to rise by 4% this summer, anticipating that it’ll be even hotter than last year.