But this time may be different. One theory is that weaker data allowed companies to prepare and soften the economic landing.

The Bank of Japan’s “yield curve control policy” could be on its way out as central banks around the world raise rates to beat inflation.

For well over a year, the interest paid by long-term Treasury bonds has been lower than that of shorter-term debt. But a recession hasn’t happened yet.

The yield for a two-year note is roughly a whole percentage point higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury right now. And that often precedes a recession.

Some recent economic indicators suggest the risk of a recession in the U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months is diminishing.

The federal government sells more than a dozen different kinds of bonds. They all have very different purposes.

This time around, it may not be telling us that a recession’s on the way.

Historically, an inverted yield curve has spelled recession.