The Conference Board reported the biggest monthly decline in consumer confidence since 2021. And the University of Michigan reported a sharp increase in inflation expectations.

Inflation expectations vary by political affiliation, especially with tariffs in the mix. But fears of inflation can be self-fulfilling.

Consumers still forecast about 3% inflation, according to a New York Federal Reserve Bank survey. Responses also reflect a looser job market.

Consumers tend to overestimate where inflation will be, but if you look at their expectations three years from now, they believe it will slow down.

The Federal Reserve may take note of whether businesses anticipate having to pay higher wages or raise prices under the next administration.

The New York Fed is scheduled to report on consumer inflation expectations Monday morning, producer prices Tuesday and the consumer price index on Wednesday.

Households expect inflation to be 3% in a year. While that’s not up from the previous month, it’s also not down.

The PCE and CPI measure different things, but the message they send to consumers may influence expectations — that then can affect inflation.