Although President Donald Trump has a habit of slapping on and then rolling back tariffs, these duties may have lasting effects on consumer prices, making it difficult to reset the proverbial clock on trade. 

Products that Americans want to buy from around the world currently face a tariff rate of at least 10%, which has consumers bracing for price increases. Tariffs are a tax that U.S. importers pay to the U.S. government. Importers can pass them along to you in the form of higher prices or just eat the costs.

Even if the tariffs are later removed, experts told Marketplace, the prices for some goods may not fall back to their original levels if demand is high or companies have to reorganize their supply chains.

Since taking office, Trump has imposed a slew of these levies on other countries. In addition to that 10% baseline, there’s a 25% rate on nearly all Canadian and Mexican goods that aren’t compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and 145% on most imports from China.  

Any price increases due to tariffs have yet to show up in consumer data, said Tyler Schipper, an associate professor of economics at the University of St. Thomas. Inflation eased in March, with consumer prices falling 0.1% month over month and the annual inflation rate at 2.4% compared to 2.8% in February.

But economists do expect prices to go up. Schipper said he’s heard anecdotes about some businesses that have already passed their costs on to customers. 

If a U.S. company builds a factory in a new country and changes its shipping routes, it may be too costly to revert back to its old supply chain, said Jonathan Ernest, an assistant professor of economics at Case Western Reserve University. Any price hikes resulting from the new system will likely remain in place. 

But the prices of some goods, like fruit and vegetables, may be less sticky. Let’s say Trump decided to impose a 25% duty on avocados from Mexico and then removed it. (Mexican avocados are currently exempt from tariffs.) 

“When you take off those tariffs, it would be much easier to simply lower the price of avocados because you haven't had dramatic supply chain changes,” Schipper said. “There's only really one place to get the avocados.”

You also have to take into account the product’s price elasticity, or how sensitive demand is to price changes. If demand falls after tariffs are implemented, prices will likely decline if the duties are removed, Schipper said.

But if demand remains high even with tariffs in place, companies won’t see a need to lower the price.

“Firms are profit-maximizing entities, and they're happy to keep their profits higher if consumers are willing to pay these higher prices,” Schipper said. 

The auto, high-tech and construction industries are especially vulnerable to tariff-driven cost increases because they rely on either imports or overseas labor, said Francesco Bianchi, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University. 

American car manufacturers, for example, use labor and parts from Canada and Mexico. Wiring will go from Mexico to the U.S. to become a seat harness, then that seat harness will go back to Mexico to become a car seat before it’s placed in the vehicle. 

Bianchi thinks these tariffs can bring on “additional inflationary pressure” and stagflation, which is a combo of high prices, high unemployment and slow economic growth. As the cost of imports goes up, consumers may hold on to their money, causing production to decline, Bianchi said. 

However, it’s unclear how much prices will rise. Because companies can choose to absorb some tariff-related costs, a 145% tax on a product doesn’t necessarily mean the price will rise 145%. 

If you’re concerned about hyperinflation, economists say not to worry — the U.S. isn’t printing excessive amounts of money, nor is demand unrestrained. 

“The concern with hyperinflation is always, ‘If I don't pay more today and buy this good now, it might cost twice as many dollars tomorrow,’” Ernest said. In that scenario, prices spiral out of control as everyone tries to buy at the same time. 

And if countries impose their own reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods, American manufacturers may decide to redirect more of their sales to the U.S., which would expand the supply of goods and keep a lid on prices, Ernest said. 

We’ll have to wait and see how much prices end up changing. 

“Some of this is going to play out like a bunch of forced experiments on consumers,” Schipper said.