We now know what many (but not all) of President Donald Trump’s tariffs are set to be: 10% minimum on imports, with exemptions for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, lumber and certain minerals. For many countries’ goods, the levy will be much higher.
Just a year ago the average tax on goods coming into the U.S. was 2.5%. Now, it’s 22.5%, according to Fitch Ratings — the highest in more than 100 years.
So now that we have those numbers, what are we going to see on shelves and in grocery carts?
For some businesses, tariffs have already made an impact. Eugene Jen is a partner at the Jenesis Group, a family-owned homebuilder in New York.
“We placed an order for specialty stainless steel. From the time that we first quoted the job back in February to now, my vendor told me they increased the prices 277% — I actually did the math,” he said.
Homebuilders expect construction prices to climb more than $9,000 for a single-family home, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
“It’s due to tariffs on building materials like nails and screws that come from Asia, as well as appliances,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
But the latest tariffs are so broad-based, they’re gonna show up way beyond home prices.
“These tariffs apply to pretty much everything that you see in a retail store,” said Jon Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation.
Goods from several Asian countries got the highest tariffs — 54% in some cases. That’s where we’ll feel the biggest sticker shock, said Kylie Cohu, a vice president at the Jefferies investment bank.
“Consumer electronics, those are definitely exposed. Footwear, as well as apparel, is highly exposed. Anything kind of with a textile, as well as toys and games and even some parts of furniture,” she said.
Cohu said retailers will try to convince suppliers to eat some of the cost. But a lot of goods arriving now were ordered up to a year ago. The time for negotiating is long gone, leaving retailers holding the bag and less able to shield consumers.
“And now, companies are gonna have to scramble to come up with the cash, and folks don’t have time to react and shift their supply chains and sourcing, if they’re even able to,” said Jon Gold with the NRF.
UBS economists now predict inflation will soar to 4.4% this year and stay above 4% in 2026. Deutsche Bank economists say real gross domestic product growth could fall below 1% this year, at which point the economy tips perilously close to recession. The unemployment rate, they predict, could rise to 5% this year.
