We got another — honestly — lousy sign for the consumer economy Tuesday.

March’s consumer confidence index from The Conference Board fell again, for the fourth straight month. And it fell more than economists expected.

The expectations index dropped even more sharply. Like the name says, it measures consumers’ economic hopes and fears for the future. It’s now at its lowest point in 12 years and sitting well below the threshold that signals a recession is coming, according to The Conference Board.

Inflation expectations were up, expectations for future employment and income were down and confidence in future personal finances was down to its lowest level since 2022.

We’ve been here before, and pretty recently. 

When inflation ramped up in 2022, consumer sentiment tanked. But, said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, “we did see strong consumer spending despite below-historical-average consumer sentiment.” 

But, there are some differences for consumers now. Lots of uncertainty — around tariffs, government layoffs, interest rates. And now we have a slowing economy.

“It’s an open question whether these fears of economic uncertainty really change behavior, or whether this is a repeat where people said one thing and did another,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank.  

But Adams said there is reason to think it’ll be different this time. Now, consumers are worrying about their employment and income. 

“Fears of job losses are more likely to translate into cutbacks in spending than fears of high prices,” said Adams.  

So far in 2025, consumers haven’t dramatically pulled back. 

But, Sofia Baig at polling firm Morning Consult said she’s seeing “little warning signs — I wouldn’t say flashing red yet, but spending numbers in January were quite a bit muted.”

Baig said lower-income consumers are doing worse and spending less.

Upper-income consumers have mostly ignored inflation and kept on spending, said Marshal Cohen at market-research firm Circana. But now, “your 401(k) and the stock market having a seesaw reaction. That gets that upper-end consumer nervous, and they pull back a little bit,” said Cohen. 

Overall, Cohen sees American consumers becoming more hesitant, asking themselves why they need to rush out and buy something now, when they can just wait a while.